Ukraine Strikes Back in the South
Ukraine's artillery attacks have caused much damage to the supply chain of the Russian army. Ukraine has a chance to start their counterattack. They can target the Russian supply chain and win back their territory. Ukraine launched counterattacks against Russian troops taking back several villages and towns over the weekend. As per recent news reports, the chances of such counterattacks are the highest in southern Ukraine. But it is difficult to predict where in southern Ukraine. This was the first test,
Who has the Initiative? The second test is to see which army is winning the War of Attrition?
These images are from the Battle of Verdun. It is a famous battle from World War I, fought between France and Germany. In 1916, this battle lasted for 303 days, it continued until there were no soldiers, horses, or food in the German forces. This is a famous example of War of Attrition. A similar war is being fought in the Donbas region.
Both Ukraine and Russia are engaging in artillery attacks against each other, so that their enemy is exhausted. Even if the Russian Defense Minister has claimed that only 5,937 Russian soldiers have died in this war, According to the US military, in reality, 70,000-80,000 Russian troops have been killed. You might think that US is inflating the numbers since it is opposing Russia.
But several independent agencies have also stated that the number of Russian troops killed in this war is far higher that what is claimed by Russia. People have estimated that 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. You might say that since the Russian army is bigger than the Ukrainian army, even if more Russian soldiers are killed, it doesn't mean that Russia is losing the war of attrition. The number of soldiers being killed in the war is just one factor.
The second factor is the willpower of the soldiers. Many experts believe that the willpower among Ukrainian soldiers is higher, because they are fighting to protect their country. Whereas, we have seen the news footage of Russian men fleeing the country to escape being drafted into the army. It is expected that the willpower of the employees at Stars Bucks is better than Russian army's.
This was the second factor. War of Attrition. In this test, both countries are close but experts believe that Ukraine is winning this. The third test is to see which army has more capacity to fight the war. The soldiers of both armies are being killed. Their supplies are running out.
But which army can last longer?
It is a bit difficult to evaluate this, Because we don't have enough evidence from Russia or Ukraine. First, let's just talk about the soldiers. There's clear evidence that Russia has more soldiers than Ukraine. This is why Vladimir Putin could induct 300,000 men into the Russian army. And it is said that Russia hasn't deployed all its soldiers to this war. The second thing is the equipment. It is a bit difficult to compute this, because we know that Ukraine doesn't have its own equipment. The equipment is coming in from other countries.
But how long will these countries send equipment to Ukraine?
It would decide which country has more capacity. For this test, you can either say that Russia is winning, or that both countries are well matched. But what do these three tests mean? You can say that Ukraine is ahead of Russia in 1 or 2 tests.
Does that mean that Ukraine will win this war?
It depends on whether Ukraine can successfully carry out the counterattacks. Look at this map again. Ukraine has 2 options if they want to attack.
The first option is to get Kherson back under their control. It is the only provincial capital under Russian army's control. By taking back Kherson, the willpower among Ukrainian soldiers will increase substantially. And it will signal to the western countries that their support is proving helpful. And so they shouldn't stop their support.
The second, and perhaps the more dangerous option is that the Ukrainian forces try to push southwards In this plan, the Ukrainian forces would try to damage Russia's supply line connecting Crimea and Donbas regions. With this, Russia's control over this region would destabilize. If Ukraine isn't successful in this, their army may be trapped by the Russians.
Apart from this, we need to remember one more thing about this war, it is relatively easier to defend in military operations to attacking. Till now, Ukraine has been mostly defending.
Will it be able to counterattack?
In this entire situation, one thing is clear, neither of these armies would get total victory. Security expert Emma Ash word claimed that, Most likely, this war will end through negotiations. The country that'll set the agenda in the war will be able to set the agenda during the negotiation as well.
Some people are worried that if Russia starts to lose this war, Vladimir Putin may use nuclear weapons. In his recent speech, he had threatened that he wouldn't hesitate to use nuclear weapons. But if most experts are to be believed, this is a mere threat. They reason that Vladimir Putin knows the consequences of using a nuclear weapon.
And he may think about using nuclear weapons, only when he would run out of other options. Experts claimed that since Vladimir Putin has called up 300,000 soldiers for this war, it shows that using nuclear weapons is only a threat. Because he still has several other options.
He can call up other soldiers, he can use other equipment, he can stop selling natural gas to European countries, And if he gets too desperate, he can target Ukraine's energy supply and civilian infrastructure. That's why the chances of having a nuclear war, is next to zero. But it doesn't mean that Vladimir Putin is not under pressure now.=ss.ss their army may be trapped by the Russians.
Apart from this, we need to remember one more thing about this war, it is relatively easier to defend in military operations than attacking. Till now, Ukraine has been mostly defending.
Will it be able to counterattack?
In this entire situation, one thing is clear, neither of these armies would get total victory. Security expert Emma Ash word claimed that, Most likely, this war will end through negotiations. The country that'll set the agenda in the war will be able to set the agenda during the negotiation as well.
Some people are worried that if Russia starts to lose this war, Vladimir Putin may use nuclear weapons. In his recent speech, he had threatened that he wouldn't hesitate to use nuclear weapons. But if most experts are to be believed, this is a mere threat. They reason that Vladimir Putin knows the consequences of using a nuclear weapon. And he may think about using nuclear weapons, only when he would run out of other options.
Experts claimed that since Vladimir Putin has called up 300,000 soldiers for this war, it shows that using nuclear weapons is only a threat. Because he still has several other options. He can call up other soldiers, he can use other equipment, he can stop selling natural gas to European countries, And if he gets too desperate, he can target Ukraine's energy supply and civilian infrastructure.
That's why the chances of having a nuclear war, is next to zero. But it doesn't mean that Vladimir Putin is not under pressure now. Friends, this is Anatoly Gerashchenko, he was the former head of Moscow Aviation Institute One of the top engineering institutes in Russia.
I am saying 'was' because he passed away. When Vladimir Putin was giving his speech, declaring partial mobilization, the news broke that Gerashchenko was murdered. He fell from the high University walls. It is ruled as an accident. That he fell down from a high place, by chance.
Doesn't this death sound very mysterious? Do you know the interesting bit?
There have been many such mysterious deaths in Russia recently. Of famous Russians. One 1st September, there was a similar death of the Oligarch Ravil Maganov. He was the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer company, LUK oil.
He fell down from the 6th floor window of the hospital. There's no information about why he was in the hospital or how he fell down. But one thing is for certain, Maganov was among the rare oligarchs, who were criticizing Putin, for this invasion. He called this conflict a tragedy. Experts claim that the Russian government and Putin are directly involved in the deaths.
The Mysterious Deaths, Dissent, and the Battle for Russia's Future
The influential people who tried to raise their voices against Putin, were suddenly, and mysteriously, dead. As evidence, these experts site the speech given on 16th March when Putin declared that any pro-western or anti-war Russian spotted would be labelled traitor and scum. It meant that anyone criticizing Putin's decision, would be labelled a traitor. And that such traitors would be hunted and dragged out of Russia.
If you look at Putin's history, it is full of such incidents. Ever since Putin has been in power in Russia, about 107 journalists and dozens of political opponents have been killed under Putin's reign. It is a convenient coincidence that anyone criticizing the Russian President or disagreeing with him, gets killed out of nowhere.
But it will be interesting to see the way this war is being prolonged, Russia needing to mobilise citizens, this is simply infuriating the Russian civilians. The number of people disagreeing with Putin in Russia keeps on growing. According to the reports, several pro-Putin people have changed their opinions. And they have started to ask questions. So there is a high possibility that if Ukraine defeats Russia, Putin will be blamed for it. And the public opinion may go completely against Putin.
If the political opposition can carve its way, this can be the end for Putin. Anyway, the conclusion of this video is that Russia's initial invasion attempt on Ukraine has flopped terribly. Ukraine has defended its sovereignty. And has secured the country to quite an extent. The Eastern and Southern regions where the war is still raging, it's possible that it will be dragged on for a long time. Because both sides are hoping that the other side will get exhausted and accept defeat. But meanwhile, heavy civilian and military casualties are being reported.
More than 100 million people have been displaced. It's hoped that the conflict would soon end.
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